THE GAMBLING HOTLINE: Don’t bet on gambling tactics to work Print E-mail
Wednesday, 02 July 2008

Every form of gambling has experts who claim they have a proven way to beat the system. While these systems may work on occasion due to the wonderful element of short-term luck, they can often be disastrous for gamblers who are foolish enough to invest in them.

Here are three classic gambling fallacies floating around the casinos and Internet today:
Martingale system: The Martingale system has roots with games and wagers that have a 50 percent chance of being successful. Bets such as betting on the color (red or black) or the number (odd or even) on a roulette wheel, a hand of blackjack or a spin on the video poker machine, are commonly used with the strategy.

The idea behind it is to double your standard bet every time you lose so that once you win, you are back to being even. The logic behind the Martingale is solid, but it’s terribly flawed.

The Martingale system assumes that money isn’t an object, and, sadly, that isn’t the case for most recreational gamblers. A gambler using this system on a $20 bet can quickly become $320 in debt with five consecutive misses. And since bets are doubled immediately after a loss, it forces players to gamble more per hand.

Dumbo strategy: There are 36 numbers on a roulette wheel and two zeros to give the house a slight edge. The dumbo strategy is when a player picks a single number and bets it every time for 34 straight spins of the wheel. If the number hits with one of those spins, the player pockets the 36-1 odds (preferably early in the session) and ends play.

The eternal flaw of this system is that there is only a 60 percent chance the number of choice will hit, so there is a 40 percent chance the players lose all of their money. Those are terrible odds.
Errors of probability: It’s common to see systems based on probability, but these systems should always be greeted with skepticism. For example, if one were to roll a single six-sided die, the odds of rolling any pre-selected number on it are 1-6. The odds of rolling that same number on back-to-back rolls are 1-36.

Many systems like to focus on the back-to-back probabilities, but this is flawed thinking. The true form of probability as it relates to gambling is the first number (1-6). Every roll of the dice, every spin of a wheel is a separate mathematical event, and nothing from the past carries over into the present.

Chuck Blount | 210SA contributor

 
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