| THE GAMBLING HOTLINE: Sometimes likely winner isn't best bet |
|
|
| Wednesday, 23 January 2008 | |
|
The concept of posting odds is probably best known among non-gamblers as something that's done at a horse race. At the horse races, attendees purchase an odds sheet for a nominal fee that lists all of the races held that day. Each race lists the horses that will be running in it, and the sheet handicaps the field — ranking the horses from the most to least likely to win. The listed favorite is usually given relatively poor-paying odds like 3/2 (where a bettor would be required to bet $2 to win $3) or at best 3/1, and the low-ranking horses will get a listing like 32/1, and so forth. The same concept of handicapping is constantly applied to all sports bets, where teams and contests are treated just like the horses. One of the important principles of handicap wagering is that it can often be very unprofitable to constantly bet the favorite. Almost as unprofitable as it is to always take the long-shot bet. Here's an example of what can go wrong with betting the favorites. Suppose you were to go back in time and wager that this year's USC Trojans would win the Bowl Championship Series on a futures bet. Your goal was to win $100 on the wager. (Note: Looking for a certain profit figure isn't exactly a wise betting strategy.) Prior to the start of the season, USC was the favorite to win the championship, listed at 5/3 to do so. This meant that a bettor would have to wager $100 to get $60 in return, and almost $200 to get the desired $100 return. This is a very large investment for such a small return, when better buys were out there on the market. To return that same $100, bettors would have only had to post $40 on the Ohio State Buckeyes or $60 on the LSU Tigers, the team that went on to win. Bookmakers know that novice gamblers love to take the easy road for the easy money. This always leads to poor value in the favorite bets, because when you lose, the odds dictate that you lose big. Chuck Blount | 210SA Contributor |
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|















.gif)




