| THE GAMBLING HOTLINE: Early bettor doesn't always get the win |
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| Wednesday, 26 December 2007 | |
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The majority of all college and professional football betting lines are typically set six days in advance of the games. Oddsmakers love to get the lines out early to generate as much betting action as possible on every game. These lines will then adjust throughout the week based on the sides players are betting. For example, if the Cincinnati Bengals are listed as 4-point favorites at home against the Cleveland Browns on a Monday. That line might creep upward to 5 or 56/1/2 by Thursday if the majority of players are betting with the Bengals. Lines fluctuate because sports books always want to make sure they aren't going to take the worst of it with a bad line. The people who set the lines are certified geniuses, on par with the finest doctors and scholars, but they are prone to an occasional mistake. Getting the Bengals at –4 is a major bargain if this line were to creep upward by a point and a half by midweek. But betting early also can come with some severe risks. Players get hurt in sports, especially in football and basketball. Another factor is weather. Just as the books post the standard betting lines every Monday, they also post the over/under scores for the game. These are popular bets for players, but the weather can create a dramatic handicap in such situations. So is it better to go ahead and bet on the games early in the week or wait until a few minutes prior to kickoff? Unfortunately, there is no clear-cut answer. There is value in both trains of thought, but betting on the over/under early in the week is almost always a bad idea. Chuck Blount | 210SA Contributor |
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