When you talk about the NFL and the best football teams playing in it, the usual suspects for the past five years have remained the same.

In the AFC, the New England Patriots can always be counted on to play practically error-free football and are well-coached. Three Super Bowl victories in five years tend to produce premium stock value.

Led by quarterback Peyton Manning, the Indianapolis Colts consistently win 10 or more games each season, and they finally broke through for a Super Bowl victory last season.

Over in the NFC, Philadelphia usually is favored on a week-to-week basis, and recently, the Dallas Cowboys are starting to curry favor as a powerhouse.

Whereas the smart money may be to bet with these teams in a format where point spreads don't fall into the picture (i.e. they just have to win), it can be extremely dangerous to bet when the spreads are involved.
The reasoning is simple: The better the product looks, the more the odds-makers will add to their status as a favorite to diminish their value.

Most gamblers who throw action on a football game bet with the favorites. This isn't a surprise to anybody, much less the folks setting the lines.

So to take advantage of this: The lines will creep up as the season progresses with your better teams. Chances are the listings are already inflated more than they should be.

Last year, the Patriots went 12-4, Indianapolis went 12-4, San Diego went 14-2 and Philadelphia went 10-6.

However, against the spread, no team fared better than 8-8, and both the Colts and Eagles went 6-10.

What's eye-opening about these numbers is that most of the losses against the spread fell on the second half of the season. It's very easy to add on points with a team like the Colts.

The average bettor will not notice the difference between a listing that has the Colts as a 4.5-point favorite vs. being a 3-point favorite, but in the gambling community, this is a huge difference. Instead of an extra field goal to cover, Indianapolis needs an extra touchdown.

Already in this young season, the Colts were 1-2 against the spread in the first three weeks of play.

Indianapolis only covered in its opener, where it defeated New Orleans 41-10 as a 5.5-point favorite.

Take a good, hard look at the lines when going with the powerhouse teams. They may still be worthy of a wager but often entail extra risk with the increased points they are forced to give up. There has to be another reason to making the bet because banking on a straight victory where the spread doesn't matter is rarely enough.

CHUCK BLOUNT | 210SA